Drew DolanWHAT WE'RE READING: WSJ — Flood of Supply is Damping Rent Rises
The Wallstreet Journal recently published an article “Flood of Supply if Damping Rent Rises." In today’s multifamily real estate environment, supply is the leading statistic that determines viability within any market. Nationally, we have seen a constant supply of multifamily housing over the past five years in the top 30 metros. Until recently, these metros have been able to absorb new inventory while maintaining high occupancy rates and rent growth greater than two percent. Roughly half of the top 30 metros had occupancy declines of 1.0% or greater in the first quarter this year. New supply has been delivered rapidly but absorbed slowly and markets with outsize development activity—such as Seattle (-1.6% occupancy decline), Dallas and Raleigh (both -1.4%)—have felt the most pressure.[1]
Titan is uniquely positioned to deliver multifamily units in Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Our analysts are focused on understanding the supply story in each of our chosen markets. It is estimated only 58 units will be delivered to Santa Fe in 2018. This makes our multifamily project there particularly exciting—especially because it is the first, Class A multifamily garden project to be built there in over 20 years. While multifamily inventory growth is highest in the Sunbelt and Western U.S. markets, Santa Fe simply does not fit inside this generalization.
On the Albuquerque supply side, permits for 185 multifamily units were issued from April 2017 to April 2018, down 66 units from the prior year. Titan continues to be the predominant supplier of multifamily units in Albuquerque. Supply of multifamily units delivered to Albuquerque is projected to be 832 units through 2020 with TDREF I projects accounting for 422 of those units.[2]
While national primary and secondary markets may be experiencing lower rent growth due to increased supply, TDREF I remains exceedingly excited about its tertiary market strategy.
Footnotes:
[1] “May 2018” Multifamily Monthly. Yardi Matrix.
[2] “Market Performance Summary: Albuquerque, NM.” Metropolitan Statistical First Quarter 2018. Axiometrics.”